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Several Bases, Policy Closures and Shocks in Same Directory Suppose that you have in mind an application starting from data for 2000, with different policy shocks over the period 2003 to 2009. Suppose that the policy shocks relate to reductions in tariffs over that period. You might have in mind two different rates of reduction, the first FAST reductions and the second SLOWer reductions. In each case, lost tariff revenue is replaced by a tax on labour (that is, an income tax). That is, you have two different sets of Policy Shocks to implement. Here we assume that these two different sets of Policy Shocks begin in the same year 2003 as far as RunDynam is concerned. If they start in different years, you need to adopt a different strategy for managing these applications in the same directory. As far as the climate within which these changes occur, you may have in mind that wage bargaining is done in PRE-tax terms or in POST-tax terms. [These affect the Policy results since lost tariff revenue is replaced by a tax on labour.] That is, you have two different sets of Policy Closures to implement. The effects of these policies depend, of course, on the Base case. You may also have two different Base cases in mind, the first with NORMAL growth and the second with PESSIMISTIC growth throughout the base period 2001-2009. That is, you have two different sets of Base Closures and Shocks to implement. Suppose that you want to run all of these different applications (there are eight of them as you will see) in the same directory. Choosing Appropriate Sim Names What Sim Names would be appropriate? Base. Below we use NOR for the NORMAL growth case and PES for the PESSIMISTIC growth case. Rerun. Below we use PRE for the PRE-tax wage bargaining case and POS for the POST-tax bargaining case. Policy. Below we use FAS for the FAST tariff reduction case and SLO for the SLOWER tariff reductions. Below we suggest how you could efficiently set up and run these 8 different applications. Below we assume that the Model name is MYMODEL.EXE. The Two Policy Shocks 1. NORMAL growth in Base, PRE-tax wage bargaining and FAST tariff reductions. Set up the first of these using Sim Names: Base NOR, Rerun PRE and Policy FAS. Run Base, Rerun and Policy. After you run these, note that the Sim Details are automatically saved using the Sim Details file with the standard name MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP.DS1. And the records of your runs are stored in files MYMODEL-NORB.DS3 (Base), MYMODEL-NORB-PRER.DS4 (Rerun) and MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP.DS5 (Policy). 2. NORMAL growth in Base, PRE-tax wage bargaining and SLOW tariff reductions. Change the Policy Shocks on the Closure/Shocks page to give the Slower reductions in tariffs. Change the Sim Name for the Policy to SLO. [If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again under the Tasks menu, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Policy.] Then run just the Policy. At this stage, you have two complete sets of results. You can switch between them by loading the appropriate Sim Details (MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP.DS1 or MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-SLOP.DS1). [Load all in each case.] Whichever you load, if you ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that all are ok. The Second Set of Policy Closures Now it is time to implement the different (POST-tax wage bargaining) Policy Closures. 3. NORMAL growth in Base, POST-tax wage bargaining and FAST tariff reductions. Begin by loading Sim Details MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP.DS1 (FAST tariff shocks, PRE-tax wage bargaining), which was automatically saved when you ran application 1 above. Select Load all when you are asked which parts to load. Check that the Sim Names (on the Sim Overview page) are now NOR, PRE and FAS (as in the Sim Details you have just loaded). Then change the Policy Closures on the Sim Overview page to those for the POST-tax wage bargaining and change the Sim Name for the Rerun from PRE to POS. [If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Rerun and all of the Policy. When you loaded the Simulation Details file MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP-DS1, this also loaded the associated Record of Runs files. In particular, it loaded the record of jobs and files created when you last ran the Base, which was as part of application number 1 above.] Now run the Rerun and the Policy. 4. NORMAL growth in Base, POST-tax wage bargaining and SLOW tariff reductions. Now it is time to simulate the SLOW tariff reductions with these POST-tax bargaining Policy Closures. You have the NORMAL Base and the POST-tax bargaining already loaded (from the previous case 3). How can you safely load the SLOW tariff reduction Policy Shocks? The best way is to select Load Simulation Details under the File menu (or click on that button on the Sim Overview page) and select Sim Details in file MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-SLOP.DS1 (which was automatically saved when you ran application number 2 above). When you are asked which parts to load, indicate that you want to load just the Policy Shocks part of these Sim Details since that is what you want now. [To load just the Policy Shocks part, click on the fourth option in the Load Sim Details form Load just the following parts of the Closure/Shocks part and check just the last option Policy Shocks (and Policy Sim Name).] When you load just the Policy Shocks part, just the Policy Shocks column will change on the Closure/Shocks page and just the Policy Sim Name will change (to SLO) on the Sim Overview page. Hence the Sim Names and the Closure/Shocks page are just what you want. If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Policy. [When you loaded the Simulation Details file MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-SLOP-DS1, this also loaded the associated Record of Runs files. In particular, it loaded the record of jobs and files created when you last ran the Base (which was as part of application number 1 above) and when you last ran the Rerun (which was as part of application number 3 above).] Now run the Policy. Now you have four completed applications. All use the Normal growth base case. You have two alternative wage-bargaining cases (PRE and POS) and, for each of these, two alternative tariff reduction scenarios (FAS and SLO). You can switch between them by loading the appropriate Sim Details. [Load all in each case.] For example, if you want to look at the FAST tariff reductions with POST-tax wage bargaining, load sim details on file MYMODEL-NORB-POSR-FASP.DS1. Whichever you load, if you ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that all are ok. [This is because the associated Record of Runs files are also loaded.] The Pessimistic Base Case Now for the second (PESSIMISTIC growth) Base case. 5. PESSIMISTIC Base, PRE-tax wage bargaining and FAST tariff reductions. Load Sim Details from case 1 above (namely MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-FASP.DS1). Select Load all when you are asked which parts to load. Check that the Sim Names (on the Sim Overview page) are now NOR, PRE, FAS (as in the Sim Details you have just loaded). Now change the Base Closures and Base Shocks on the Sim Overview page to reflect your PESSIMISTIC growth assumptions. Most importantly, you must change the Base Sim Names to PES to indicate that you are now using the Pessimistic base case. [The other Sim Names are what you want, namely PRE (Rerun) and FAS (Policy).] If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you have to do all of the Base, Rerun and Policy (because you have not solved any for this PESSIMISTIC Base case). So run all three parts. Note that when you run this, the software automatically saves Sim Details file with the standard name MYMODEL-PESB-PRER-FASP.DS1. You will be able to load back the PESSIMISTIC Base case from this at any time in the future. 6. PESSIMISTIC Base, PRE-tax wage bargaining and SLOW tariff reductions. You have the PESSIMISTIC Base and the PRE-tax bargaining already loaded (from the previous case 5). To load the SLOW tariff reduction scenario, Load Sim details from any case in which you had Slow tariff reductions (for example, MYMODEL-NORB-PRER-SLOP.DS1 -- case 2 above) and load just the Policy Shocks part. [Proceed as you did in case 4 above to load just the Policy Shocks part.] Then the Sim Names and the Closure/Shocks page will be what you want, namely PES, PRE and SLO. [Check this.] If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Policy (because the Base and Rerun are as in 5 above). So run the Policy. 7. PESSIMISTIC Base, POST-tax wage bargaining and FAST tariff reductions. First load the Sim Details from case 5 above (MYMODEL-PESB-PRER-FASP.DS1). Select Load all when you are asked which parts to load. Check that the Sim Names (on the Sim Overview page) are now PES, PRE and FAS (as in the Sim Details you have just loaded). Then you need to load the POST-tax bargaining Policy Closures. To do this, Load Sim Details from any case in which you had POST-tax bargaining (for example, MYMODEL-NORB-POSR-FASP.DS1 -- case 3 above) and load just the Policy Closures part. [To load just the Policy Closure part, click on the fourth option in the Load Sim Details form Load just the following parts of the Closure/Shocks part and check just the third option Policy Closures (and Rerun Sim Name).] When you load just the Policy Closure part, just the Policy Closure column will change on the Closure/Shocks page and just the Rerun Sim Name will change (to POS) on the Sim Overview page. Now you everything on the Closure/Shocks page as you want and the Sim Names should also be as you want, namely PES, POS and FAS. [Check this,] If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Rerun and the Policy (because the Base is as in 6 above). So do the Rerun and the Policy. 8. PESSIMISTIC Base, POST-tax wage bargaining and SLOW tariff reductions. Load Sim Details from case 6 above (MYMODEL-PESB-PRER-SLOP.DS1) and load just the Policy Shocks part (Slow tariff reduction). Now you have the Sim Names and everything on the Closure/Shocks page as you want. If you then ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that you just have to do all of the Policy (because the Base and Rerun are as in 7 above). Now run the Policy. Finally you have all eight applications run. Again you can switch between them by Loading the appropriate Sim Details. [Load all in each case.] Whichever you load, if you ask Where To Start? Results Be the Same if Run Again, you should be told that all are ok. [This is because the associated Record of Runs files are also loaded.] Summary Note how it is important to choose appropriate Sim Names for the different Bases, and the different sets of Policy Closures (the Sim Name for the Rerun is the relevant one) and Policy Shocks (the Policy Sim Name is the relevant one). Note how it is sometimes important to load just one or two columns on the Closure/Shocks page (for example, when re-loading the SLOW tariff cuts to run with the POST-tax bargaining in cases 4 and 8 above). Lastly, once you have finished with these applications, you will want to create ZIP archives to preserve them. You dont need 8 separate ZIP archives, two will do. If you want to see how tricky it was to do these 8 applications with the short file names in use before Version 3.1 (December 2003), click here. URL of this topic: www.copsmodels.com/webhelp/rundynam/hc_multibase.htm Link to full GEMPACK Manual Link to GEMPACK homepage |