Alternative Policy Using Base Case from Previous Policy Run

Suppose you have carried out a complete policy simulation (that is, Base, Rerun if appropriate and Policy). You may then wish to see the effects of a different policy, starting from the same Base Case. For example, your original policy simulation may have been to examine the consequences of a technological improvement during the second and third years of the run. Now you may wish to look instead at the effects of a change in the required rates of return during the first 5 years of the run.

You should not have to carry out any of the Base simulations since they are unchanged. You may find it helpful to load the Simulation Details of the Base Case before setting up and running the new Policy.

Suppose that the 3-character Sim Names for the Base, Rerun and original Policy (as shown on the Sim Overview page) are BS1, BR1 and PL1 respectively. When you carried out the original run, simulation details and times and dates of files created were stored in Simulation Details files with names BS1BR1PL1.DS1, BS1BR1PL1.DS2, BS1.DS3, BS1BR1.DS4 and BS1BR1PL1.DS5. When you want to carry out the alternative policy, you can start by reloading these simulation details (via File | Load Simulation Details). Select BS1BR1PL1.DS1. [When you load this, the software also reads the other related files with suffix .DS2 to .DS5.] This will set things up as in the previous Base and Policy (including the technological change Policy shocks).

However, you want to examine a different Policy (rates of return). The first thing to do is to change the 3-character Sim Name for the Policy on the Sim Overview page. For example, change it to PL2. Similarly, if you are rerunning the Base with Policy closures and you intend to change any of the Policy closures, you should change the 3-character Sim Name for the Rerun. [For example, change it from BR1 to BR2.]

Then make the other changes for your new (rates of return) Policy. For example,

•you may wish to change the number of years (Sim Overview page),

•you may wish to change some of the Policy closures (as in the Policy Closures column on the Closure/Shocks page), and

•you will certainly want to change the Policy shocks (as in the Policy Shocks column on the Closure/Shocks page).

When you have set up the new Policy, we recommend that you save these details (via File | Save Simulation Details As…).

If you ask Where To Start? under the Tasks menu, you should be told that the Base case is all completed in sequence and that you need to start at the beginning of the Policy (and at the beginning of the Rerun if being carried out). [If you just change the Policy shocks and nothing else, you should be able to start at the beginning of the Policy. If you change the Policy shocks and closures, you will need to also redo those years of the Rerun for which the Policy closures have changed. If you change the number of years, you will also need to run the Base for any extra Base years added.]

URL of this topic: www.copsmodels.com/webhelp/rundynam/hc_altpol.htm

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