PRACTICAL GE MODELLING COURSE CHINA 25-29 July 2022

Conducted by Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), Victoria University and
School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)

For inquiries please contact: Xiujian Peng (xiujian.peng@vu.edu.au) or Jun Yang (yangjunuibe@163.com) .

Summary

The Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia and the School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) will offer an intensive five-day course introducing participants to computable general equilibrium modelling and to the GEMPACK software used to solve equilibrium models. The course will be delivered online through Zoom during 25-29 July 2022. The course will be lectured in both Chinese and English with tutoring available in both Chinese and English during computer sessions.

The course focuses on a typical single-region applied general equilibrium model of China: the ORANI-G China model with 2002 input-output database. The model is a variant of the ORANI-G model of the Australian economy. Variants of the ORANI model of the Australian economy have been used extensively for policy analysis in Australia for more than two decades. ORANI-G (a generic version of ORANI) has been used as the basis of many single-country models including models of Thailand, China, Brazil, South Africa, Pakistan, the Philippines, Denmark, Finland and etc. GEMPACK software is used by research workers in over 800 different locations in about 90 countries around the world.

Rationale for the Practical GE Modelling Course

The course should appeal to

Those needing background in order to work with, or understand results from, a typical CGE model like ORANI-G China;
Those wishing to use the theory of ORANI-G with GEMPACK as the basis for a model of a country other than China;
Those wishing to get sufficient background in order to learn about multi-regional, multi-country, dynamic and/or forecasting models. Examples of such models are CHINAGEM and Sino-TERM models of China, VU-National (previously known as MONASH) or VURM (previously known as MMRF) models of Australia or the USAGE and TERM-US model of USA. This course also provides the background assumed for more advanced multi-regional or dynamic model courses run by CoPS each year.

Course Outline

The course aims to introduce participants to the ideas and techniques of CGE modelling, and to equip them to start using, adapting or constructing CGE models for their own simulations. By the end of the course, participants will have acquired thorough knowledge of:

The theory underlying CGE models;
The basic structure of a typical CGE model;
The representation of applied GE models in the notation used in GEMPACK;
The data requirements of a typical single-country CGE model;
Checking that the equations and data of a model are implemented correctly on the computer;
Formulating exogenous scenarios;
Computing simulations for policy analysis;
Interpreting and reporting results.

July 2022 Course Program

The course program will consist of lectures integrated with extensive hands-on experience with modelling in GEMPACK. Participants in this course will need to use their own notebook computer (see Laptop requirements). The course is designed as an intensive program, with fairly long work hours. The course material and program are as follows.

Monday 25 July 2022: commence 8:30am

The basic structure of a CGE model, Introduction to the ORANI-G China model, Overview of GEMPACK software
Computing: First simulation: an overall picture; looking at the data for ORANI-G China
Finish 5:00pm

Tuesday 26 July 2022: commence 8:30am

The theoretical structure of ORANI-G China: producer, export/local mix; capital creation
Computing: interrogating the data; closure and homogeneity; tariff cut with ORANI-China
Finish 5:00pm

Wednesday 27 July 2022: commence 8:30am

Theoretical structure of ORANI-G China: household demand, other final demands, market clearing
Computing: Analysing how equations and data affect simulation results; wage simulation with ORANI-G China
Finish 5:00pm

Thursday 28 July 2022: commence 8:30am

Analysing the wage simulation, Theoretical structure of ORANI-G China: purchaser's prices and macros; investment and labour market; explaining results, closure
Computing: adding new data, variables, and equations; using subtotals
Finish 5:00pm

Friday 29 July 2022: commence 8:30am

Group simulations with ORANI-G China: simulation, analysis of results, report preparation
Group presentation of reports on ORANI-G China
Finish 4:00pm

Documentation and Software

Before the course starts, participants will receive an electronic folder, containing

Course notes and lecture slide shows;
Exercises to be completed in classes;
Documentation of the ORANI-G China model and data;
Instructions for installing and using GEMPACK.

At the end of the course participants receive one or more folders, containing

An Executable-Image version of the latest GEMPACK software which will allow them to run ORANI-G simulations on any modern Windows PC, and to construct and run their own models of comparable size;
A GEMPACK licence for the above software;
All computer files needed to run a standard 35-sector version of the ORANI-G China model; and
an image of the entire CoPS website, containing many example models, working papers, and utility programs.

Assumed Background

Previous hands-on experience in solving GE models is not required. We expect that course participants have:

A bachelor or master degree in Economics, or equivalent work experience;
Experience of using a PC or notebook running Windows;
A desire to learn about CGE modelling.

Preparing for the course

Participants should study some material prior to the course. Download and work through the MINIMAL course material. The MINIMAL model and course are simplified versions of the ORANI-G model and course -- and use similar notation and software. To go further, you could:

Download and read the ORANI-G document, which you can find at the top of the ORANI-G page;
Download and experiment with the free Demonstration Version of GEMPACK . .

Course Fees China 2022

AU$1500 -- The fee covers course materials (including software), lectures and online tutorial

Course Venue:

Remote attendance (online) via Zoom

Participants are expected to attend remotely via Zoom.
The schedule will be based on Beijing time: 8:30am to 5pm Monday to Thursday, 8:30am to 4pm Friday.
Breaks for morning tea, lunch and afternoon tea will be allowed for.
Lectures will be live and interactive via Zoom. Questions and class discussion will include all participants.
Practical computing sessions will be run via Zoom with tutors available to help participants. A staff to student ratio of 1 to 5 is typical in practical sessions.
During practical computing sessions participants are encouraged to ask questions. Where appropriate Zoom breakout rooms will be used to give assistance to individuals or smaller groups.
During practical computing sessions participants may be asked to share their screens with a tutor.
Videos that demonstrate solutions be provided for some exercises.

Course registration and payment

Complete the registration form to register the course. If you need to contact us regarding your registration and payment, please email xiujian.peng@vu.edu.au at the Centre of Policy Studies or yangjunuibe@163.com at UIBE.