RunDynam is a Windows interface which provides an environment specially tailored for carrying out forecasts and policy deviations with recursive dynamic models.
As detailed below, you can download the Demonstration Version of RunDynam. You can also download an example application which is based on a dynamic version ORANIG-RD of the ORANI-G model. This uses 30-sector data of Japan. You can run this application and look at the results.
We have also made available an example application based on the MONASH model. If your main interest is in finding out about RunDynam, we recommend that you start with the ORANIG-RD application (see below) since it is more straightforward than the MONASH application. However if your main interest is in the MONASH model, you should go ahead with the MONASH application.
From the bottom of this page, you can also download a small dynamic GTAP application.
You can download and install the latest version of RunDynam by following the instructions here.
Download OGRDAP1.ZIP (4.3 Mb) and make a note of where you save it.
Start RunDynam running by double clicking on the RunDynam icon on your desktop.
RunDynam will probably suggest that you start by loading an application from a ZIP archive. If so, say "Yes" and follow the instructions below. If RunDynam does not make this suggestion, please select, from the Zip menu, the item "Restore Ingredients from ZIP Archive" and follow the instructions below.
Select the ZIP archive OGRDAP1.ZIP which you downloaded (see above).
You will then be asked to specify the directory to restore the files to. We suggest that you specify a subdirectory OGRDAP1 of the directory in which you installed RunDynam, for example "C:\RunDynam\OGRDAP1". You can type this (without quotes) into the Directory Name field, and the new directory will be created for you.
In response to the next sequence of prompts click "Yes" to create the directory, "OK" to confirm, "Yes" to load the Simulation Details now, and "OK" to close the message about the Working Directory.
Have a look at the different pages in the tabbed notebook that RunDynam shows. These are labelled Introduction, Model/Data, Sim Overview, Closure/Shock, Results, Other Files.
On the Model/Data page (click on the Model/Data tab to get there), you can see the name of the program ORANIGRD.EXE which will solve the model for each year of the Base Case and Policy runs. You can also see the name of the starting data file ORANIGRD.HAR. If you wish to look at the actual data, right click on the BASEDATA line under the heading "Input Files for First Year of Base Case" and select option "View this file".
On the Sim Overview page you can see that the Base Case and Policy runs will cover 25 years, starting with data (ORANIGRD.HAR) for the year 2000 and producing data for each year from 2001 to 2025.
On the Closure/Shocks page you can see the different files used for the closure and shocks for each of the 25 years of the Base Case and the Policy. To see one of the closure files, right click on NATURAL.CLS (under Base Closures) and select "Edit". [But be careful not to make any changes to this file.] In this particular application,
RunDynam is completely documented in the extensive Help file which is supplied with it. To see this, click on menu item "Contents" under the Help menu.
To simplify how RunDynam runs this example, go to the "Run Preferences" menu and select "Do Not Rerun Base Case with Policy Closures". You should now see a tick beside this menu item.
Click on the Run Base case button near the bottom of the screen. If you see a prompt "We recommend that you use SOL Files for Shocks" click Yes. When prompted click OK to begin the simulation. RunDynam will solve for the 25 years of the Base Case. This usually takes between 1 to 5 minutes to solve depending on the speed of your computer.
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page.
For example, click on the Spreadsheet button. You may need to tell RunDynam where your spreadsheet program is located (example: C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office\Office12\Excel.exe). You will see the year-on-year results for each year of the Base Case. You should see, for example, that x3tot (real household consumption) increases by 3 percent each year. Similarly for the other real variables shown since the Base Case is a uniform growth scenario.
You can check this by looking at some of the Base Closure files on the Closure/Shocks page. For example, right click on the FORECAST.BSH file and select "Edit". You can see several shocks of size 3.
Click on the Run Policy button near the bottom of the screen. For simplicity, say "No" when asked if you want to check that the prerequisites are ok.
RunDynam will solve for the 25 years of the Policy. This will take another 2 to 5 minutes.
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page. For example, in the "Results for All/Several Years" section (the top part) of the Results page, make sure that "Differences - Policy v Base", "All", and "Cumulative" are selected. Then click on the Spreadsheet button. You will see the cumulative differences between the Policy results and the Base Case results. You should see, for example, that x3tot is 0.89 percent higher in year 2002, 0.03 percent higher in year 2003 and so on.
The Policy shock is a temporary 1 percent increase in real household consumption (via shift variable f3tot) in 2002. The shock is temporary since it is reversed in year 2003. To see this, go to the Closure/Shocks page and right click and "Edit" the Policy Shock files F3TOT.PSH and REVERSE.PSH.
You can use ViewSOL to look at the results via the Graph/ViewSOL button on the Results page. You can draw graphs from within ViewSOL (see the ViewSOL's Help menu item).
You might like to look at the additions to the TABLO file for the model which have been made to turn the comparative-static ORANI-G model into a recursive dynamic model. If so, go to the View menu and click on Main TABLO file. Search for Dynamic Extension to see the part of the TAB file relating to the dynamic extension of the model. You can download documentation and files relating to the ORANIG-RD model.
You can try other policy shocks.
You can build a different Base Case.
Don't forget the Help file.
After you have downloaded and run the ORANIG-RD application described above, you could follow similar steps to run a small version of dynamic GTAP. Download DYNGTAP.ZIP (4.3 Mb) and make a note of where you save it. Then from the RunDynam Zip menu select the item "Restore Ingredients from ZIP Archive", select dyngtap.zip, and follow the steps used above for ORANI-RD.
This dynamic GTAP example (aka Ch6HO3x3_gdyn_v32_97) comes from Chapter 6 of the book "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis", (more details). More examples from that book are here.
As you can see, RunDynam offers many options and possibilities. The best way to learn about RunDynam and dynamic models is to come to one of the dynamic modelling courses offered by CoPS.