The SinoTERM Model

SinoTERM is a "bottom-up" CGE model of China, which treats each region as a separate economy. It is based on the TERM model of Australia. The first SinoTERM database distinguished 137 sectors and 31 regions (based on the 2002 input-output table for China). A version of SinoTERM is downloadable: COPS archive item TPGW0086. Although the downloadable database (47 sectors, 31 regions) is an aggregation of our master database, we believe that it is still larger than any previous CGE or input-output database of China.

SinoTERM developments

Publications about SinoTERM

• Horridge, J.M. and G. Wittwer (2008),"The economic impacts of a construction project, using SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China", China Economic Review, Vol.19, Issue 4, Dec. 2008, pp. 628-634.
• Horridge, J.M. and G. Wittwer (2009),"A multi-regional representation of China's agricultural sectors", China Agricultural Economic Review, [2009 Volume 1, Issue 4, pp. 420 - 434]

A longer (working paper) version of the China Economic Review article may be downloaded from here.

An updated database with extraordinary sectoral and regional detail

A prefecture level master database has been created at CoPS using the 2012 input-output table and data from various provincial and national statistical yearbooks. This database includes 162 sectors in 365 regions. The master database and subscriber access to it are outlined here.

Learning to run CGE models including SinoTERM

The Centre of Policy Studies plans to run a SinoTERM course each year in either Beijing or Shanghai. See our list of upcoming training courses.

Contract Research

CoPS offers a package of China-oriented CGE modelling services, described here. Enquiries about consultancies using SinoTERM should be addressed to Glyn Wittwer.

TERM simulation result: long-run effects on employment of better transport infrastructure
in selected north-western regions (Chongqing, Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang).
Shows % changes in province shares of national employment.

See also

• COPS archive item TPGW0086: Version of SinoTERM model as at May 2008. 2002 data, aggregated down to 47 from 137 broad sectors while retaining all 31 regions.
• COPS archive item TPMH0083: shows how the China 2002 IO Tables were processed.
• COPS archive item TPGW0079: A 63-sector, 10 region SinoTERM simulation presented to a conference in Changsha, July 2007.
• COPS archive item TPMH0067: using older data, shows how a national CGE database for China is transformed into a multi-regional SinoTERM database.
• Older Powerpoint presentation about SinoTerm.
• The TERM model for Australia and other countries.
• Other China-related modelling by CoPS.