The JaBar Page

Updated 17 Jul 2013

Latest changes: non-zero stocks; population; added Bali

Model material

Some items below are RunDynam Archive zips; load these into RunDynam with the Zip...Restore Ingredients command.

This 5.4MB RunDynam Archive zip, uploaded 17 July, contains a 25-year, 41-sector, 12-region IndoTerm simulation of a new coalmine in East Kalimantan.

This zip, uploaded 17 July, contains model, data, and 2 comparative static CMF files simulating construction and operation phases of a new coalmine in East Kalimantan.

This 5.4MB RunDynam Archive zip, uploaded 11 July, contains a 25-year, 41-sector, 12-region IndoTerm simulation the same as that described below, except that:

• there are 12 bottom-up regions (including Bali). Base-Rerun-Policy takes 6.5 minutes on a fast PC.
• Stocks are non-zero (but bounded to 5% of sales).
• Summary file shows per capita income by region.
• New "DelBudg" variables help regional government budget constraint.

This 3.8MB zip archive contains ShadeMap.exe, plus various Indonesia maps with different numbers of regions.

This 5.4MB RunDynam Archive zip, uploaded 27 June, contains a 25-year, 41-sector, 11-region IndoTerm simulation the same as that described below, except that:

• there are 11 bottom-up regions (up from 6). Base-Rerun-Policy takes 6 minutes on a fast PC.
• Some TAB file updates: "decompositions" now work properly in cumulative view in ViewSOL; and MainMacro variable has a National column.

This 4.6MB RunDynam Archive zip, uploaded 2 June, contains a 25-year, 41-sector, 6-region IndoTerm simulation with:

• a more refined base forecast which matches recent history for growth in main components of real GDP.
• a policy scenario in which no more land can be planted with OilPalm from 2014. This is bad for Sumutra and Sulawesi but good for Java.
• topdown extension which generates 33-province results for employment (munemploy), GDP (munxprim_i), etc.

This 4.7MB RunDynam Archive zip contains a 25-year, 39-sector, 6-region IndoTerm simulation with:

• a base forecast which is near to balanced growth except that it gets %1 harder to produce Oil and Gas [declining reserves]. Hence Sumatra and Kalimantan grow a little more slowly.
• a policy scenario in which the OrangUtan party gain power in 2014. They impose a 20% tax on OilPalm production. This is bad for Sumutra and Sulawesi but good for Java.

For this simulation the "Run All" (Base,Rerun,Policy) command takes 3 minutes 20 seconds (on Mark's fast PC). When the forecast is refined, more regions will be added -- and it will take much longer.

This 4.4MB RunDynam Archive zip contains a 25-year, 67-sector, ORANIG-RD simulation with:

• 33 top-down regions.
• a base forecast similar to the IndoTerm base simulation mentioned above.
• a policy scenario in which EdibleOil exports are frozen (by an export tax) in 2016.
• the tax reduces annual growth in oilpalm output from 8% pa to 3% pa.

For this simulation the "Run All" (Base,Rerun,Policy) command takes 5 minutes (on Mark's fast PC).