Authors: Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira-Filho and Mark Horridge
We analyze the Brazilian commitments to COP21 under different scenarios, with a general equilibrium model of Brazil developed for land use change and GHG emissions analysis. The model is dynamic, inter-regional and bottom-up, and here distinguishes 16 regions and 6 biomes. We simulate different scenarios of future deforestation, including the halt of illegal deforestation, the restoration of 12Mha of forests, and replacing deforestation in the Amazon biome by deforestation in the Cerrado biome. Our analysis shows that the restoration of 12 Mha of forests would be enough to meet Brazil's 2025 commitments with no other extra GHG savings efforts, but would not meet 2030 commitments. Exchanging deforestation in the Amazon biome for deforestation in the Cerrado biome would seriously compromise the accomplishment of the targets. We note that emissions in the general economy are increasing in Brazil, suggesting that other efforts must be made to meet the COP21 targets.
JEL classification: C68, D58, E47, Q53, Q54, R14.
Keywords: Brazil, deforestation, CO2, Cerrado, Amazon.
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