Authors: George Verikios, James McCaw, Jodie McVernon and Anthony Harris
Early 2009 saw the emergence of an H1N1 influenza epidemic in North America that spread to eventually become a global pandemic. Previous work has suggested that pandemics can have large macroeconomic effects on highly affected regions; here we estimate what those effects might be for Australia. Our analysis applies the MONASH-Health model: a quarterly computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We simulate the effects of two H1N1 epidemics; the relatively mild 2009 outbreak and also a more severe episode. The analysis supports the assertion that an H1N1 epidemic could have significant short-run macroeconomic effects.
JEL classification: C68, E37, I18.
Please cite the later published version in:
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, vol. 17, no. 1, 2012, pp. 22-51.
Keywords: general equilibrium, H1N1 influenza, pandemics.
Working Paper Number G-212 can be downloaded in PDF format.
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