TERM-USA CGE modelling Course 2021

The two-week TERM-USA course introduces participants to the equations and data structure of the TERM model applied to the USA. The TERM model is a single-country multi-regional CGE model which can be applied to any country for which a suitable regional database can be constructed. This course uses a teaching database for the USA which distinguishes 11 regions and 26 regional-commodities/sectors. TERM has the capability to work with a large number of regions that accurately represent geographical or administrative areas. Participants will gain extensive hands-on experience with the GEMPACK software used to solve CGE models through a series of guided practical exercises.

The TERM-USA course will appeal to economists who wish to model the regional and national effects of policy changes and other economic shocks originating at both regional and national levels. TERM models have been used around the world to analyse diverse economic issues, including the effects of trade policy, productivity, major construction projects, taste shifts and adverse events.

This course will also appeal to those needing background in CGE modelling in order to work with, or understand results from a typical multi-regional CGE model, and to those wishing to learn CGE modelling using GEMPACK.

Format: self-paced online, 18-29 October 2021

The course runs for two weeks with an estimated time commitment of 17-19 hours per week. Participants work largely independently with written material and recorded videos which cover the lectures and the practical computer exercises. Help is available via email and scheduled Zoom sessions. See the course program section below for more details.

Course Fees^[1]

[1] Payment methods. Payment can be made by credit card or bank transfer. Credit card payments are done in Australian dollars $AUD using the Victoria University online payment system. If you pay by credit card you need to pay the $AUD equivalent. Details will be emailed to you after you register.

[2] For residents of Australia course fees include GST.

Multiple attendees from one institution may be be able to negotiate a discount.

The fee covers course materials (including software).

Registration and Payment

Please complete the application and registration form. Confirmation and payment information will be sent by a follow-up email. Registration and payment must be completed by 15 October 2021. For application queries please contact Louise Pinchen, email: louise.pinchen@vu.edu.au.

Regions used in the TERM-USA course

The TERM model

TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a multiregional CGE model of a single country, which is "bottom-up" -- it treats each region as a separate economy. Two key features of TERM are: (a) its ability to solve quickly with a large number of regions or sectors, and (b) its database construction methodology, which allows a multiregional database to be constructed quickly, even with quite limited regional data.

The first, Australian, version of TERM distinguished 144 sectors and 57 regions. More recently, its master database has been extended to represent 182 sectors in 205 statistical sub-divisions (SSDs), so that urban areas, water catchment areas and tourism regions may all be distinguished accurately. The high degree of regional detail makes TERM a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks (especially supply-side shocks) that may be region-specific. Finally, TERM has a particularly detailed treatment of transport costs and is naturally suited to simulating the effects of improving particular road or rail links.

Versions of TERM have been prepared for Brazil, China, Finland, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Poland, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sweden and USA. The course material was originally based on the South African version and has been adapted for the USA.

Read more about the TERM model.

Course Program

In week 1 about equal time is spent on lectures explaining CGE theory as applied to TERM, and on computing sessions designed to teach how to compute and explain simulation results. Week 2 beings in the same way as week one with lectures and computing sessions alternating. Week 2 concludes with an extended computing project where participants follow a modelling brief, implement a policy simulation, then analyse and report on the results. Two Zoom tutorials are scheduled for both weeks; times suitable for different time-zones will be arranged.

Documentation and software

Course participants receive

• course notes and lecture slide shows;
• exercises to be completed in classes and labs;
• documentation of the TERM-USA model and its data;
• instructions for installing and using GEMPACK (Unlimited Executable-image version);
• a GEMPACK licence for the above software, expiring after 1 year;
• HTM and PDF files containing the complete GEMPACK documentation;
• all computer files needed to run the TERM-USA model used in the course.

Assumed background for TERM Course

Previous hands-on experience in solving CGE models is not required. It would be an advantage to have done the introductory Practical GE Modelling Course. We require that course participants have:

• a bachelor or master degree in Economics, or equivalent work experience;
• experience of using a PC running Windows;
• a burning desire to learn how to do CGE modelling.

This course is more technically demanding than the introductory Practical GE Modelling course, and we expect that many participants will have previous exposure to CGE modelling. To avoid boring those who have already learnt the basics, we have chosen to present a slightly different set of techniques from those used in the Practical GE course.

Preparing for the course

If you have not worked with GEMPACK before, you should download and work through the MINIMAL course material. Although far simpler, the MINIMAL model and course use similar notation and software to TERM. To go further, you should:

• download and read the ORANI-G document, which you can find at the top of this page;
• download and experiment with the free Demonstration Version of GEMPACK;
• study the TERM webpage, and the material that it links to.

Computing requirements

Participants need

• a Windows PC or laptop;
• GEMPACK (supplied with course materials), ideally installed before the course;
• Zoom;
• Microsoft Office, specifically Excel and Powerpoint;
• a PDF reader.

For more information contact:

Dr Louise Roos, email: louise.roos@vu.edu.au
Centre of Policy Studies
Victoria University

See also:
Main Training Courses page
Previous course photos
TERM webpage