Authors: George Verikios, Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke and Gordon Woo
We analyse the global economic effects of two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence-low infectiousness event and a low virulence-high infectiousness event. We do this by applying results from a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model to a detailed, quarterly computable general equilibrium model. Our findings indicate that global economic activity will be more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. At the regional level, regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy will be affected more strongly than less integrated regions.
JEL classification: C68, E37, I18.
Please cite the later published version in:
Verikios, G., Sullivan, M. Stojanovski, P., Giesecke, J. and G. Woo, (2015), 'Assessing regional risks from pandemic influenza: a scenario
analysis', The World Economy, 39: 1225-1255.
Keywords: computable general equilibrium, pandemic influenza, quarterly periodicity.
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